Les gagnants et les perdants de la zone de libre échange continental

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Économie

L’Union africaine a lancé symboliquement le 07 juillet 2019, à Niamey, la future zone de libre-échange continental africaine (Zlec). La naissance concrète de ce grand espace économique est prévue le 1erjuillet 2020. Il s’agit, à travers ce projet de faciliter et de renforcer le commerce intra-africain avec la levée des taxes douanières sur au moins 90% produits, à terme. Cet excellent projet va également renforcer l’intégration de l’Afrique et lui permettre de faire face aux autres grands pays ou ensemble du monde (Etats-Unis, Chine, Inde Union européenne), etc. Réussie, la Zlec permettra aussi à l’Afrique d’accroître son poids dans le commerce mondial qui pour le moment n’est que de 5% pour l’ensemble du continent. Mais lorsque la Zlec sera effective des pays comme le Nigeria et l’Afrique Sud semblent être ceux qui vont le mieux profiter pour des raisons évidentes.

Lancé en juillet dernier, la zone de libre-échange continental renvoie au panafricanisme des années 1960. Il ne s’agit pas d’un projet nouveau. Seulement, à défaut de l’avoir réussi à l’époque, pour des raisons objectives, les Etats ont d’abord opté pour des ensembles interrégionaux. Il a fallu décennies après les indépendances pour que le projet soit repris en main ces dernières années. Ainsi, en 2012, lors du 19e sommet de l’Union africaine (UA) à Addis-Abeba, des dirigeants africains s’étaient engagés à accélérer les efforts d’établissement d’une Zlec, à l’horizon 2017. L’ouverture des négociations a été décidée en juin 2015 à Johannesburg au 25e sommet de l’UA. D’autres étapes ont suivi cette décision. Aujourd’hui les conditions semblent favorables qu’elles ne l’étaient dans les années 60 -70 pour concrétiser ce vieux projet panafricain.

Un environnement favorable pour la Zlec

D’abord depuis les années 2000, les économies de beaucoup de pays africains se portent mieux grâce à des annulations massives des dettes contractées auprès de bailleurs de fonds internationaux. Ensuite, au cours de ces 10 dernières années, nombre de pays ont connu des taux de croissance significativement intéressants, atteignant 2 chiffres pour certains pays comme l’Ethiopie. Enfin, on note sur le continent une stabilité politique et institutionnelle dans beaucoup de pays comparés à l’instabilité et la fragilité qui ont miné les années post-indépendances. Pour toutes ces raisons, globalement l’Afrique est prête à aller vers la zone de libre échange continental. Avec ses 55 Etats, si le projet réussit le projet de la Zlec dans les décennies à venir, l’Afrique sera à terme, le plus grand marché commun du monde avec 1,2 milliard de consommateurs potentiels avec un PIB cumulés d’environ 2500 milliards de dollars. Ainsi, l’Afrique aura son poids dans le commerce international.«Si nous enlevons les droits de douane, d’ici 2022 le niveau du commerce intra-africain aura augmenté de 60 %, ce qui est très significatif», avait prédit, en 2018, Albert Muchanga, commissaire à l’industrie et au commerce de la commission de l’UA.

La Zlec: des opportunités et de nombreux défis

La Zlec est une opportunité. C’est une évidence. Toutefois, les Etats africains devront relever de nombreux défis pour réussir ce projet. En vérité, la zone de libre-échange continental, c’est l’occasion plus que jamais de faire la promotion des produits «Made in Africa». La libre circulation des produits sans taxes douanières d’Alger au Cap et de Dakar à Djibouti suppose la capacité des pays à produire localement, de manière qualitative et compétitive. Or, la plupart des pays, à part l’Afrique du Sud, le Nigeria et, dans une certaine mesure, le Maroc entre autres, ont un retard considérable en matière d’industrialisation. Par conséquent, ce sont les pays qui ont une grande capacité de production et d’exportation qui pourront mieux profiter de la Zlec. En revanche, les pays avec une faible industrialisation, sans grande capacité de production et de transformation risquent de passer à côté de cette opportunité, à moins qu’ils n’engagent des réformes et fassent des investissements lourds qui leur permettent de se rattraper et se positionner. Ainsi, ils peuvent éventuellement rendre attractifs leurs pays vis-à-vis des grands investisseurs qui viendront installer des usines de production. Faute de cela, il y a risque d’invasion des produits étrangers dans la zone.

Le risque d’invasion de produits étrangers dans la Zlec

Les frontières une fois ouvertes, un pays qui ne se sent pas capable de produire suffisamment pour exporter librement partout en Afrique, la tendance sera d’importer les produits d’Asie, des Etats-Unis ou de l’Europe et de les réexporter vers ce vaste marché continental. Ce qui va fausser les règles du jeu et susciter quelques remous entre Etats. D’ailleurs, l’actualité en Afrique de l’Ouest nous en donne la preuve à suffisance. Depuis le 20 août, les autorités d’Abuja, en violation de tous les traités, ont pris la décision unilatérale de fermer les frontières avec le Bénin. Le Nigeria exige au Bénin voisin, entre autres, la suspension de la réexportation massive des produits comme du riz thaïlandais, les véhicules d’occasion, les tissus, du poulets surgelés, etc. mais aussi l’importation par le Bénin de l’essence nigériane à travers la contrebande, couverte par l’Etat béninois. Un commerce illégal qui ferait perdre au fisc nigérian jusqu’à 400 milliards de F CFA. Cette mesure protectionniste prise par Abuja était censée durer 28 jours. Mais la période est passée et les frontières restent fermées. Cette mesure protectionniste concerne aussi le Togo, le Niger, le Tchad, le Burkina et le Cameroun, mais manifestement c’est le Bénin qui est terriblement affecté, parce que manifestement, il y a d’autres raisons inavouées de la part de Muhamadu Buhari contre son homologue béninois Patrice Talon.

De ce point de vue, la mise en place de la Zlec devra prendre les mesures d’accompagnement pour aider les pays dans leurs politiques de production et d’exportation, faire en sorte de prévenir ces velléités protectionnistes arbitraires. En sus, s’il le faut, il sera nécessaire de fixer des quotas de produits «Made in Africa» dans le cadre de cette ouverture des frontières, afin de limiter la réexportation des produits étrangers et générer des crises. Aussi, sera-t-il utile de passer à l’harmonisation des règles commerciales pour tous les membres de la Zlec. In fine, le défi de la production et son corollaire de protectionnisme doit être relevé. Les pays individuellement devront aussi se prendre en charge avec cette nouvelle donne.

Le difficile voisinage entre Etats

Le défi de la politique du bon voisinage entre Etats reste lui aussi à surmonter dans le cadre du projet de la zone de la Zlec. Certains pays voisins se regardent en chiens de faïence depuis des années. C’est le cas du Maroc et de l’Algérie qui ont parfois recours à la fermeture de leurs frontières respectives. Conséquence: les échanges commerciaux doivent transiter par l’Espagne avant d’atterrir sur leur territoire. Un tel climat ne peut pas garantir la fluidité des échanges qui pourtant est l’objectif ultime de la zone de libre échange continental. Cela risque d’être une véritable entorse. La Zlec devra gérer également les problèmes sécuritaires.

Le défi sécuritaire est aussi entier dans toutes les régions du continent. Que ce soit en Afrique l’Est (Somalie), dans la région des Grands Lacs (Burundi, Congo, Ouganda) comme dans le Sahel (Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso) ou encore en Afrique centrale (Centrafrique Tchad), il y a urgence à venir à bout des groupes armés divers et surtout le terrorisme qui sapent la quiétude des populations et compromettent le développement des pays. Dans ce sens, la lutte contre la piraterie maritime est une autre question importante à résoudre. Bref, la Zlec ne réussira que dans une Afrique pacifiée Comme l’a si bien dit Cheikh Anta Diop, «la sécurité précède le développement». Sécuriser les différentes régions du continent, venir à bout du terrorisme, en finir avec le conflit armé c’est crucial. Mais la question de la logistique et des infrastructures reste aussi un défi majeur.

Le Transport et la logistique en question

Qui dit commerce, échanges dit logistique.Dans le cadre de la zone de libre échange continental, la logistique sera indispensable, mais sa bonne organisation n’est pas évidente pour faciliter le transport en Afrique. «Aujourd’hui, il coûte entre trois et six fois moins cher de faire venir un conteneur par la mer de Shanghai à Douala, que de transporter ce même conteneur sur la route entre Douala et N’Djamena», note Pierre Jacquemot, chercheur à l’Institut des Relations internationales et stratégiques (IRIS) et ancien ambassadeur dans plusieurs pays d’Afrique. Sur un autre plan, le problème d’infrastructures de communication se pose de manière prégnante sachant que près d’une vingtaine de pays africains n’ont pas accès à la mer. Ils ont une certaine dépendance vis-à-vis des pays côtiers. D’ailleurs, ce sont ces pays de l’hinterland qui risquent de moins profiter de la Zlec alors que le projet est censé bénéficier à tous. «En théorie, le libre-échange favorise tout le monde, mais quand les conditions de mobilité et de production ne sont pas égales, il y a des perdants. Les pays désavantagés sont les seize pays africains les plus enclavés car ils n’ont pas accès à la mer», constate Jacquemot.

Pour M. Jacquemot, la plupart des infrastructures des pays africains sont tournées vers l’exportation des marchandises en dehors du continent. C’est l’héritage colonial. «Il va donc falloir recentrer complétement les flux de marchandises à l’intérieur de l’Afrique»,suggère-t-il. Parlant toujours d’infrastructures, il s’agit essentiellement des infrastructures routières et ferroviaires. Elles sont soit défectueuses, soient insuffisantes dans certaines régions du continent. Mais, dans le cadre du partenariat avec la Chine, l’Union africaine pourrait faire construire par Pékin ces infrastructures de communication qui aideront à la réussite de la Zlec. La «Senegambia Brige», le pont qui désenclave le Sénégal et facilite les échanges entre la Gambie voisine est sous, ce rapport, un excellent élément qui va servir la cause de la Zlec. Quid de la facilitation de la libre circulation. L’autre défi à relever pour le bien de la Zlec, c’est la corruption le long des frontières. En effet, la perception illégale des sommes par les policiers et/ou douaniers d’un pays à un autre est une pratique à bannir car ce phénomène fait augmenter les coûts de transport. Même la Communauté économique des Etats de l’Afrique de l’Ouest (Cedeao) qui est considérée comme l’ensemble régional le plus réussi, cette corruption est tenace. Il est fréquent que les douaniers et policiers n’aient pas besoin de voir de quelle pièce vous êtes munies et préférant les 1000F ou 2000F qu’il faut glisser.

Nécessité de renforcer les communautés régionales

En somme si l’intention de la Zlec est louable, de nombreux défis restent à relever pour réussir le pari il faudra du temps. Pour Pierre Jacquemot qui se réfère au cas de l’Union européenne, il faut au moins une décennie pour commencer à voir les effets. «Plus de 60 ans après le traité de Rome, nous sommes loin d’avoir achevé complètement l’Union européenne», souligne-t-il. Jacques Berthelot, économiste, spécialiste des politiques agricoles européenne et africaine, cité par Africa Check, estime pour sa part que «la ZLEC pourrait être crédible en 2063 mais avant il faut consolider pendant plus d’une génération les communautés économiques régionales comme la CEDEAO, l’EAC…pour en faire non seulement de vrais marchés communs au plan économique mais aussi aux plans monétaire, fiscal, social, environnemental».La Zone de libre échange continental (Zlec) risque de laisser certains pays sur le carreau pour ne profiter à ceux qui connaissent un certain niveau d’industrialisation (Nigeria, Afrique du Sud)ou encore ceux qui ont une certaine capacité de production comme le Maroc, ou l’Ethiopie, entres autres. D’ailleurs,pour, Jacques Berthelot, économiste, spécialiste des politiques agricoles européenne et africaine, « la raison commande de commencer par renforcer chaque CER avant d’élargir le libre échange à plusieurs CER et a fortiori à l’ensemble du continent».

Rappelons que la Zone de libre-échange continental (Zlec) un des «projets phares» de l’Agenda 2063 de l’Union Africaine -est de « stimuler les échanges commerciaux intra-africains ». La Zlec devra aboutir, d’ici 2028, à la création d’un Marché commun, et d’une Union économique et monétaire en Afrique incluant les huit Communautés économiques régionales (CER) de l’Union africaine (UA).

Par Noël SAMBOU

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    หรือผู้เล่น , Banker หรือ เจ้ามือ , TIE หรือ
    เสมอ , Bonus หรือที่เราเรียกกันว่าโบนัสนั่นเอง ,
    player pair หรือ banker pair เป็นการลงพนันแบบไพ่ออกแต้มมาคู่กัน นอกจากนั้นยังมีกติกาการเรียกไพ่ใบที่ 3
    หากท่านเลือกลงพนันฝั่งผู้เล่น
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    ท่านจำต้องคอยฝั่งตรงข้ามคือฝั่งเจ้ามือ (banker) ว่าได้แต้มมากแค่ไหน ถ้าเกิดฝั่งเจ้ามือได้ 8-9 แต้มก็จะจบเกมในทันที ด้วยเหตุว่าเป็นแต้มที่สูงที่สุดของไพ่แล้ว แล้วก็อีกอย่างที่ท่านจะต้องรู้เกี่ยวกับกติกาก็คือกระบวนการนับคะแนน หรือการออกแต้มของไพ่ ซึ่งหากว่าไพ่ออกมาเป็น A = 1แต้ม , ถ้าเกิดได้ไพ่
    J Q K 10 = 0 แต้ม , ถ้าเกิดออกไพ่มา 2-9 = 2-9 แต้ม ถ้าหากได้ไพ่มาก็สามารถนับแต้มได้ตามไพ่ได้เลยแนวทางการเลือกเดิมพัน เราสามารถเลือกลงเดิมพันได้หลายต้นแบบ ดังนี้-ฝั่งผู้เล่น หากพวกเราเลือกลงทุนฝั่งเจ้ามือ
    (player) แล้วแต้มออกมาสูงกว่าอีกฝั่งท่านจะชนะ โดยมีอัตราผลตอบแทนคือ 1 : 1 ถ้าเกิดเราเลือกลงทุนฝั่งเจ้ามือ (banker) แล้วไพ่ออกมาแต้มสูงหรือมากกว่าอีกฝั่งจะมีอัตราผลตอบแทนเป็น
    1 : 0.95 -การเลือกลงทุนแบบเสมอหรือTIEนั้น ถ้าหากไพ่ส่งผลออกมาเท่ากันระหว่างผู้เล่น(player)
    กับเจ้ามือ(banker) อาทิเช่น 4-4 5-5 8-8 2-2 เพียงไพ่ออกแต้มมาเท่ากัน ท่านก็จะสำเร็จทดแทนมากยิ่งกว่าการลงพนันแบบธรรมดาถึง
    8 เท่า -การลงพนันอีกต้นแบบนึงเป็น การเลือกพนันแบบโบนัส(Bonus)
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